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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Mississippi has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has collapsed in Mississippi: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Mississippi is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Mississippi is projected to rise about 13% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.00.006.1
20272.90.006.0
20282.80.005.9
20292.70.005.7
20302.60.005.6

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Carmel2020161974
Olive Branch1720011966
Cybur1320191966
Poplarville1219781972
Aberdeen1120251970
Diberville1019871979
Okatibbee L.1020081995
Walthall919871970
Scooba919821967
Waynesboro920101966
Leaf River920132013
Scooba 2819871983
Lucien720131967
Columbia720181969
Duffee720081973
Amite River720132008
Olive Branch 2720222016
Beverly620111966
Cockrum620241966
Lake620251966
Necaise620221982
Forest520251972
Neely520121974
Monticello520172007
Latimer 2520232021

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.