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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Michigan has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Michigan is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Michigan is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.004.5
20272.00.004.4
20281.90.004.3
20291.80.004.3
20301.70.004.2

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Drayton Plns3119871973
Cohoctah1420252021
Irons1319891970
Pleasant Valley 21220252004
Juniata1120241966
Riggsville1020191967
Walloon Lake1020041977
Pleasant Val919971967
Big Rapids919901967
Hungerford920251991
Herron920162011
Chippewa Lk.920251992
Traverse Cty819921974
Harrietta820251990
Cedar Run819991994
Rochester820251993
New Buffalo820141992
Lake City720221970
Galesburg720251966
Howardsville720251969
Remus720251974
Brush Creek720161975
Cathro720161967
Bear Lake620251967
Belding 2620252004

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.