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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Michigan

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Michigan has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Michigan is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Michigan is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.004.5
20262.00.004.4
20271.90.004.3
20281.80.004.2
20291.70.004.1

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Drayton Plns3119871973
Irons1319891970
Howardsville1120241969
Juniata1120241966
Lawrence1020241969
Riggsville1020191967
Walloon Lake1020041977
No Bradley1020241970
Cohoctah1020242021
Pleasant Val919971967
Big Rapids919901967
Galesburg920241966
Herron920162011
Traverse Cty819921974
Maple Rapids820231987
Cedar Run819991994
New Buffalo820141992
Lake City720221970
Nashville720241968
Brush Creek720161975
Cathro720161967
Coopersville620241979
Bear Lake520241967
Remus520241974
Pickford520241973

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.