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Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Missouri has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Missouri is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 2.7–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–8.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Missouri is projected to fall about 11% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 2.7–8.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.03.09.1
20276.02.99.0
20285.92.89.0
20295.82.88.9
20305.82.78.8

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Hampton4720252014
Hamilton2419851972
Emden2420242017
Diamond2020252015
Frankford1920251985
Madison1720241971
Kahoka21720242002
Lucerne1720252016
Trenton1520251967
Laclede1520251994
Kirksville1420251994
Luray1420252015
Mcfall1320251994
Bolckow1219921967
Moselle1220252000
Syracuse1120241969
Cassville1020251967
Filley1020251975
Cole Camp1019901971
Frazier1020241967
Sticklervill1020251970
Richland1020252014
Rockingham920251969
Barks920251994
Kingsville920251992

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.