BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Missouri

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Missouri has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Missouri is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 2.7–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–8.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Missouri is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 7.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 2.7–8.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.13.09.2
20266.02.99.1
20275.92.89.0
20285.92.89.0
20295.82.78.9

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lucerne5720212016
Kirksville3020241994
Diamond2820242015
Hamilton2419851972
Emden2420242017
Trenton1820241967
Cascade1720241967
Madison1720241971
Kahoka21720242002
Akers1620241967
Mcfall1620241994
Rensselaer1520241971
Laclede1320241994
Kingsville1320241992
Bolckow1219921967
Lincoln1220242013
West Plains1220242014
Syracuse1120241969
Centertown1120241973
New Hampton1120242014
Luray1120242015
Peace Valley1020241975
Cole Camp1019901971
Frazier1020241967
Frankford1020241985

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.