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Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Massachusetts has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-68%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Massachusetts: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.003.0
20261.20.002.9
20271.10.002.9
20281.00.002.8
20290.940.002.7

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Princeton1119761969
E Pepperell819941966
Chilmark719831969
Belchertown720241967
Warren520091968
Prattville420191968
Maynard420211967
Mansfield420241968
Pittsfield420091967
Monterey420242019
Marion320241967
Wellfleet320071966
Newburyport320211967
Cummington320141968
Cheshire319941969
Gay Head320241996
Hancock320151997
N Oxford220241968
Sheffield220131969
Ware River220221993
Cape Cod Ns220071989
Holden220241977
N. Andover220231995
Warren 2220232010
E Dennis120191969

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.