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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-54%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Kansas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 3.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Kansas is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 8.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.2 (95% range 3.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.83.712
20277.63.512
20287.53.412
20297.33.211
20307.23.111

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Phillipsburg3920251967
Covert3820251967
Logan3420251967
Gray2520191967
Jewell2520051967
Beloit 22320182005
Chapman2119811967
Hollenberg2120251969
Solomon2120251982
Jewell 21920252006
Thrall1419701967
Ashland1220211969
Kanopolis1220251967
Hanover1120251969
Damar1120162000
Gove1020221970
Susank1020222000
Ash Valley1020192000
Beloit1020032000
Leoville820181967
Seneca720221967
Severance720252000
Albert620251967
Minneapolis620191967
Lincolnville620242002

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.