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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Kansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Kansas has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Kansas: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Kansas is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 3.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Kansas is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 5.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 3.1–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.83.712
20267.73.612
20277.63.412
20287.43.312
20297.33.111

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Phillipsburg5720221967
Covert3720241967
Gray2520191967
Jewell2520051967
Beloit 22320182005
Chapman2119811967
Hollenberg2020231969
Jamestown1920242000
Jewell 21720242006
Thrall1419701967
Kanopolis1420241967
Solomon1420191982
Logan1320221967
Ashland1220211969
Damar1120162000
Gove1020221970
Susank1020222000
Ash Valley1020192000
Beloit1020032000
Leoville820181967
Albert720241967
Hanover720231969
Seneca720221967
Minneapolis620191967
Reece620242000

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.