BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in New Jersey has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 55% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.013.1
20271.50.003.1
20281.40.003.0
20291.40.002.9
20301.30.002.9

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bennett Mill1620001966
Villas1319811979
Deepwater1219771969
Winslow1020251989
Pedricktown920121991
Cape May Ch820131992
Hope719941970
Bennett Mill 2720252016
Woodbury Hgt620251967
Pedricktown 2620252013
Spraguetown 3620252021
Croton 2620252009
Dover520231977
Ancora419771966
Masonville419691966
Clarksville419911969
Croton420071970
Ramseysburg420251995
Toms River320241966
Spraguetown319991977
Estell Manor320252022
Del Haven319911991
Spraguetown 2320072000
Robbinsville219751966
Midvale220221967

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.