BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in New Jersey has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in New Jersey: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-50%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New Jersey is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.003.1
20261.50.003.0
20271.40.002.9
20281.30.002.9
20291.30.002.8

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bennett Mill1620001966
Villas1319811979
Deepwater1219771969
Woodbury Hgt1020241967
Pedricktown920121991
Ramseysburg920241995
Cape May Ch820131992
Hope719941970
Dover520231977
Pedricktown 2520242013
Ancora419771966
Masonville419691966
Clarksville419911969
Croton420071970
Pomona420241978
Bennett Mill 2420242016
Croton 2420242009
Toms River320241966
Sandbrook320231970
Spraguetown319991977
Del Haven319911991
Spraguetown 3320242021
Winslow320241989
Spraguetown 2320072000
Robbinsville219751966

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.