BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in New Mexico has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1991.

+21%Since 1991TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
28YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New Mexico is projected to fall about 27% by 2026 — from 0.09 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New Mexico is projected to fall about 27% by 2026 — from 0.09 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.070.000.14
20230.070.000.14
20240.070.000.14
20250.070.000.14
20260.070.000.14

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maxwell520211996
Clovis420002000
Floyd320191996
Farley120142014
Grenville119721972
Valencia119751975
Cooley Lake119911991
Sedan120072007

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.