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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Tennessee has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Tennessee is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.7–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.7–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Tennessee is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 3.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 1.7–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.21.84.6
20273.21.84.5
20283.21.84.5
20293.11.84.5
20303.11.74.5

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mansfield1320251966
Peytonsville1320251966
Jefferson Cty1320111966
Collinwood1220251966
Campbellsville920171966
Petersburg620191966
Allens Brdge620231966
Moscow520231966
Big Sandy520251966
Wrigley520221966
Glen520251966
Jasper520251967
Lovell520191966
Climer520041967
Whiteville420251966
Humboldt420251966
Lewis Forest420241966
Union Hill420241967
Corryton Rd420191966
Walland419891966
Tiptonville320241966
Pond Creek320251966
Indian Mound319981966
Jones Gap320191982
Signal Mtn220251980

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.