BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Montana

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Montana has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+44%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Montana. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Montana is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 6.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.5–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.5–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Montana is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 6.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.5–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.33.47.2
20275.33.47.2
20285.43.57.3
20295.43.57.3
20305.43.57.3

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wolf Point4820242015
Lambert3920252021
Chinook3620252015
Forsyth3020231980
Brandenberg2720251968
Westby2420252015
Cabin Creek2420252018
Chuffey Spring2220252016
Saco2120252015
Lindsay1920242015
Savage1720251968
Reed Point1720251977
Winifred1720232023
Flatwillow1520081968
Glen1520251977
Raynesford1520252016
Redstone1420251968
Powderville1420251969
Pablo Res.1420251995
Willow Creek 21420251982
Church Hill1420252017
Glasgow1320251968
Brusett1320241982
Miles City1320252015
Augusta1220251976

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.