BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Texas has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
148Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Texas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 0.38 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.540.001.4
20260.510.001.4
20270.480.001.4
20280.450.001.3
20290.420.001.3

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Smyrna1520101995
Schroeder1319961969
Raymondville1019921974
Cayuga920222001
Easton 2920242014
Mount Zion820101994
Kosse720171969
Stowell620221968
Muldoon519981997
Peach Creek519921967
Oakwood519951967
Olney520211972
Thornton 2520011986
Union Hill520241994
Girard520102003
Winnie420241967
Morton420241970
Chandler420041968
Lydia420231967
Miller Grove420231967
Wolfe City419871969
Manor420242013
Bayside419961994
Burton420011999
Weches420241995

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.