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Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Maryland

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Maryland has held roughly steady: down 5% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-5%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Maryland. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Maryland is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.5–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–5.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Maryland is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 2.5–5.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.72.55.0
20273.72.55.0
20283.72.55.0
20293.72.55.0
20303.72.55.0

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Emmitsburg2920251966
Olney2520251966
Ijamsville1920251986
Madonna1920222009
La Plata1420091966
Madison1420251966
Williamsport1320251966
Jones1319941966
Honga1320251966
Largo819811966
Eklo720181966
Melitota720251966
Cokesbury720251966
Beltsville620121966
Harmony620171966
Fruitland619981966
Sinepuxent619771967
Walnut620242000
Earlton620242014
Smithsburg520141966
Silver Spg519891966
Warfieldsbrg520251966
Randallstown520131966
Mardela520191966
Grove Neck519951992

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.