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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
59Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±100.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Arkansas is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.5–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±100.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.11.64.5
20263.01.64.5
20273.01.54.5
20283.01.54.4
20292.91.54.4

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell3620182010
Maynard1720241967
Blakely1219991968
Saffell1120191967
Old Milo920141967
Centerton920242010
Compton820221967
Ravenden Springs820152010
South Bend720231967
Springhill720222010
Yellville620222010
Kelso620162011
Ashdown520231967
Poyen520071967
Russell520212010
Augusta 2420162002
Havana320212010
Lockesburg320192010
Stephens320242012
Magazine Mtn320211993
Princeton320141998
Nance320241992
Stamps220241967
Crows219911967
Harrisburg220191967

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.