BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 8.6–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.6–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 20 (95% range 8.6–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025208.331
2026208.332
2027208.432
2028208.532
2029208.632

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Denbigh5920241968
Danzig 24720242019
Zap4420241967
Ft Yates4220041968
Sheyenne Lk4120241980
Horsehead Lk3820241980
Douglas Crk3820241982
Cooperstown3420241969
Bentley3420241988
Buchanan3120241967
Regan3120221968
Braddock2820221988
Dickinson2720241968
Gorham2320181968
Lake George2120221967
Wild Rose2120241982
Sydney1819831967
Glen Ullin1820221982
Carson1820241988
Solen1820242005
Loraine1620191982
Stanley1520241967
Cedar Creek1520221968
Danzig1320141982
Montpelier1320241990

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.