BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in North Dakota has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+73%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has risen sharply in North Dakota: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 9.0–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
9.0–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 20 (95% range 9.0–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026208.632
2027208.732
2028208.832
2029208.932
2030209.032

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gorham6620251968
Glen Ullin6020251982
Denbigh5420251968
Zap4420241967
Ft Yates4220041968
Danzig 24120252019
Horsehead Lk3520251980
Cooperstown3420251969
Bentley3420241988
Sheyenne Lk3020251980
Buchanan2820251967
Lake George2720231967
Solen2620252005
Dickinson2320251968
Golva2020251979
Douglas Crk1920251982
Sydney1819831967
Dunn Center1720251968
Carson1720251988
Regan1620251968
Loraine1620191982
Cedar Creek1520221968
Montpelier1520251990
Danzig1320141982
Braddock1220231988

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.