BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird

TyrannidaeAerial insectivoresTyrannus tyrannus

Eastern Kingbird has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-48%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3,112RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Eastern Kingbird

The Eastern Kingbird (Tyrannus tyrannus) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 3,112 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 47 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Eastern Kingbird TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.2–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 2.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.2–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.31.43.1
20262.21.43.1
20272.21.33.0
20282.11.33.0
20292.11.22.9

Where the Eastern Kingbird Is Detected

BBS routes recording Eastern Kingbird, sized by most recent count.

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend by State

Eastern Kingbird population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-51%1968108
Arkansas-63%196959
Californiainsufficient datan/a4
Colorado-75%197071
Connecticut-79%196820
Delaware+45%196817
Florida-60%1968105
Georgia-39%1968109
Idaho-62%197043
Illinois-8%1968105
Indiana-2%196867
Iowa-30%196939
Kansas-61%196967
Kentucky-28%196862
Louisiana-56%196998
Maine-77%196868
Maryland-2%196876
Massachusetts-68%196832
Michigan-46%1968101
Minnesota-17%196992
Mississippi-73%196871
Missouri-28%196995
Montana+40%1970105
Nebraska-7%196974
Nevadainsufficient datan/a2
New Hampshire-79%196826
New Jersey-50%196843
New Mexico+21%19918
New York-42%1968128
North Carolina-30%1968104
North Dakota+70%196951
Ohio+21%196888
Oklahoma-74%196965
Oregon+9%197137
Pennsylvania+15%1968131
Rhode Island-33%19686
South Carolina-47%196851
South Dakota-42%196957
Tennessee-35%196852
Texas-71%1969148
Utah+1%199221
Vermont-79%196826
Virginia-68%196873
Washington-45%197062
West Virginia-25%196860
Wisconsin-33%196898
Wyoming+23%197087

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Eastern Kingbird population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin-19%1970108
Northern Rockies+15%1970137
Prairie Potholes+3%1969124
Boreal Hardwood Transition-68%1968121
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-38%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest-77%1968145
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-78%197028
Badlands and Prairies-13%1969126
Shortgrass Prairie-34%1969100
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-32%1969117
Edwards Plateau-79%19798
Oaks and Prairies-59%196966
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-14%1968277
Prairie Hardwood Transition-11%1968160
Central Hardwoods-26%1968163
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-69%1969108
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-56%196869
Southeastern Coastal Plain-39%1968340
Appalachian Mountains-32%1968369
Piedmont-42%1968169
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-55%1968163
Peninsular Florida-92%196861
Tamaulipan Brushlands-28%197414
Gulf Coastal Prairie-75%196943

Eastern Kingbird Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 48% since 1968. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.