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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-69%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Kingbird In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.154.1
20272.10.074.0
20282.00.004.0
20291.90.003.9
20301.80.003.8

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CartervilleLOUISIANA151992
SmyrnaTEXAS152010
BlakelyARKANSAS121999
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA122023
ManyLOUISIANA111992
Fort JessupLOUISIANA82023
SpringhillARKANSAS72022
EastonLOUISIANA71990
FillmoreLOUISIANA71989
FishvilleLOUISIANA62017
GraysonLOUISIANA62017
AshdownARKANSAS52023
PoyenARKANSAS52007
Mount UnionLOUISIANA52025
OakdaleLOUISIANA51994
IvanLOUISIANA52013
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA51997
Union HillTEXAS52024
Fort PolkLOUISIANA41975
WomackLOUISIANA42023
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA42021
PocolaOKLAHOMA42016
ChandlerTEXAS42004
Liberty HillTEXAS42025
EastonTEXAS42013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.