BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 11% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-11%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.4–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–4.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 26% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 1.4–4.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.54.5
20263.01.54.5
20272.91.44.4
20282.91.44.4
20292.91.44.4

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN311987
OmroWISCONSIN222001
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA152024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN122024
KielWISCONSIN122022
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN112024
JuniataMICHIGAN112024
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA112024
SaxevilleWISCONSIN112024
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN112024
LawrenceMICHIGAN102024
No BradleyMICHIGAN102024
CohoctahMICHIGAN102024
Big RapidsMICHIGAN91990
GalesburgMICHIGAN92024
KnoxINDIANA82024
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN82023
New BuffaloMICHIGAN82014
N FreedomWISCONSIN82024
WiotaWISCONSIN82024
HebronWISCONSIN82024
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN82024
GreshamWISCONSIN82024
AnnatonWISCONSIN82024
MiddleburyINDIANA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.