BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-27%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.6 (95% range 2.8–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.6 (95% range 2.8–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.83.06.6
20274.83.06.6
20284.72.96.5
20294.72.96.5
20304.62.86.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FarwellARKANSAS362018
Levee 2KENTUCKY232019
DiamondMISSOURI202025
NewberryINDIANA182025
Indian SpgsINDIANA162025
CentertonARKANSAS142025
EastviewKENTUCKY142025
BoxvilleKENTUCKY141983
New PhilaINDIANA132025
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY131998
MerrimacKENTUCKY132024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY132019
Million 2KENTUCKY132024
PeytonsvilleTENNESSEE132025
CollinwoodTENNESSEE122025
PleasurevillKENTUCKY112025
SyracuseMISSOURI112024
DelwoodILLINOIS102025
Cave In RockILLINOIS102024
PorterKENTUCKY102025
CassvilleMISSOURI102025
Cole CampMISSOURI101990
RichlandMISSOURI102025
HillsboroALABAMA91996
Cedar GroveKENTUCKY92025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.