BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.5 (95% range 5.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.3–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.5 (95% range 5.3–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.95.612
20268.85.512
20278.75.512
20288.65.412
20298.55.312

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaxwellNEBRASKA692024
ChambersNEBRASKA622023
PhillipsburgKANSAS572022
CovertKANSAS372024
SumnerNEBRASKA312024
BelvidereNEBRASKA302024
PetersburgNEBRASKA282023
HendleyNEBRASKA282024
NenzelNEBRASKA262024
GrayKANSAS252019
JewellKANSAS252005
HamptonNEBRASKA252024
Beloit 2KANSAS232018
LibertyNEBRASKA222003
SurpriseNEBRASKA222024
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA222024
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA222021
ChapmanKANSAS211981
AlmeriaNEBRASKA212021
OcontoNEBRASKA211981
HollenbergKANSAS202023
KenesawNEBRASKA202024
JamestownKANSAS192024
BoelusNEBRASKA182022
Jewell 2KANSAS172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.