BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 5.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.6 (95% range 5.4–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.05.712
20278.95.612
20288.85.512
20298.75.412
20308.65.412

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SurpriseNEBRASKA602025
PhillipsburgKANSAS392025
SumnerNEBRASKA392025
CovertKANSAS382025
LoganKANSAS342025
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA342025
BelvidereNEBRASKA322025
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA322025
ChambersNEBRASKA322025
BradyNEBRASKA302025
HendleyNEBRASKA302025
GrayKANSAS252019
JewellKANSAS252005
Beloit 2KANSAS232018
LibertyNEBRASKA222003
ChapmanKANSAS211981
HollenbergKANSAS212025
SolomonKANSAS212025
AlmeriaNEBRASKA212021
OcontoNEBRASKA211981
HamptonNEBRASKA212025
Jewell 2KANSAS192025
KennedyNEBRASKA192025
Swan LakeNEBRASKA182025
BoelusNEBRASKA182022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.