BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

-28%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
22YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 205% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+205%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±207.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 205% by 2029 — from 0.08 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.25 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±207.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.001.1
20260.270.001.1
20270.260.001.1
20280.260.001.1
20290.250.001.1

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RaymondvilleTEXAS101992
ProgresoTEXAS32011
MillettTEXAS31998
KingsvilleTEXAS22005
RandadoTEXAS22009
Mirando CityTEXAS22007
George WestTEXAS21994
LaredoTEXAS22005
RachalTEXAS12009
EncinalTEXAS12007
CatarinaTEXAS12007
El IndioTEXAS11970
GuerraTEXAS11988
Encinal 2TEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.