BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 81% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-81%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.19Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 81% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.19 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.490.001.8
20260.420.001.7
20270.340.001.6
20280.270.001.5
20290.190.001.5

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE82024
WatervilleVERMONT81980
BentonMAINE71980
NorthfieldMAINE71981
GaysvilleVERMONT62021
HudsonMAINE52000
W RutlandVERMONT52024
TurnerMAINE42010
HartfordMAINE42024
Grnd Lk StrmMAINE41993
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS42009
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS42024
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
NewcastleMAINE32023
WarrenMAINE31990
RomeMAINE32022
Northfield 2MAINE32018
SearsportMAINE32024
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS32014
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS31994
HancockMASSACHUSETTS32015
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE32023
KasoagNEW-YORK32018
BiddefordMAINE22019
Wilson MillsMAINE21984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.