BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
340Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 13% by 2029 — from 5.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.1–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.93.36.4
20264.83.26.4
20274.83.26.3
20284.73.16.3
20294.73.16.2

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA742011
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA291991
BostonGEORGIA262024
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI202016
New EllentonSOUTH-CAROLINA202024
BlountstownFLORIDA182024
Dowling ParkFLORIDA182023
MillryALABAMA172018
WorkmoreGEORGIA172019
Olive BranchMISSISSIPPI172001
DoverGEORGIA162024
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA161982
GenoaNORTH-CAROLINA162024
TazewellGEORGIA152024
WadleyGEORGIA152024
RoseboroNORTH-CAROLINA152024
HamletNORTH-CAROLINA152024
New HollandSOUTH-CAROLINA152024
WhitehallALABAMA142024
ElamvilleALABAMA142024
DudleyNORTH-CAROLINA142024
Jarvisburg 2NORTH-CAROLINA142022
SandhillsSOUTH-CAROLINA142024
PittsGEORGIA132024
OusleyGEORGIA132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.