BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
370Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.2–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.2–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.61.32.0
20271.61.32.0
20281.61.22.0
20291.61.21.9
20301.61.21.9

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StevensonALABAMA192024
BlacksburgVIRGINIA192025
RiversideALABAMA182013
DurhamNEW-YORK141976
WilliamsportMARYLAND132025
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE132011
Rural RetrtVIRGINIA122025
ChildersburgALABAMA111999
TalladegaALABAMA112025
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA112025
DrydenNEW-YORK102025
Orange LakeNEW-YORK101992
DearmanvilleALABAMA91983
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA91992
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA92025
BrooksvilleALABAMA82025
SunnybrookKENTUCKY82022
McdonoughNEW-YORK82017
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA82024
Schaefferstown 2PENNSYLVANIA82025
Wild CreekPENNSYLVANIA82025
Star TanneryVIRGINIA82025
Pt PleasantWEST-VIRGINIA82025
LakeviewALABAMA72025
OakmanGEORGIA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.