BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
369Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.6 (95% range 1.2–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±5.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.6 (95% range 1.2–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±5.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.61.32.0
20261.61.32.0
20271.61.22.0
20281.61.21.9
20291.61.21.9

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StevensonALABAMA192024
RiversideALABAMA182013
WilliamsportMARYLAND182024
DurhamNEW-YORK141976
Jefferson CtyTENNESSEE132011
Star TanneryVIRGINIA132024
ChildersburgALABAMA111999
Orange LakeNEW-YORK101992
DearmanvilleALABAMA91983
BrooksvilleALABAMA92023
Davis CrossroadsGEORGIA92021
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY92024
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA91992
SunnybrookKENTUCKY82022
McdonoughNEW-YORK82017
GreentownPENNSYLVANIA82024
Drehersville 2PENNSYLVANIA82024
GreensportALABAMA72024
LakeviewALABAMA72024
OakmanGEORGIA72024
HopeNEW-JERSEY71994
MeridaleNEW-YORK72024
ClinchportVIRGINIA71978
CedarvilleWEST-VIRGINIA72023
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.