BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.1–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.1–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.02.35.7
20273.92.25.6
20283.92.25.6
20293.82.15.5
20303.82.15.5

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New HamptonMISSOURI472025
MurdockNEBRASKA322025
HamiltonMISSOURI241985
EmdenMISSOURI242024
FrankfordMISSOURI192025
Mt HamillIOWA182025
Red RockIOWA182025
MadisonMISSOURI172024
Kahoka2MISSOURI172024
LucerneMISSOURI172025
BrookvilleINDIANA152025
TrentonMISSOURI152025
LacledeMISSOURI152025
ThrallKANSAS141970
KirksvilleMISSOURI142025
LurayMISSOURI142025
JohnsonNEBRASKA142025
GretnaNEBRASKA142018
SheffieldILLINOIS132024
ChandlervillILLINOIS132025
MelroseILLINOIS131999
AthensvilleILLINOIS132025
BryantIOWA132025
AliceIOWA131999
McfallMISSOURI132025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.