BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: up 6% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+6%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.3–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.3–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.3–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026114.418
2027114.418
2028114.418
2029114.318
2030114.318

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA542025
Wolf PointMONTANA482024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA412025
LambertMONTANA392025
ChinookMONTANA362025
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA361984
SpartaNEBRASKA352025
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA352025
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA342025
TildenNEBRASKA332025
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA312011
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA302025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA292025
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA282025
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA272023
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA262014
WestbyMONTANA242025
MidwayNEBRASKA242025
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA232025
SacoMONTANA212025
VolgaSOUTH-DAKOTA202025
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA192025
PantherIOWA182025
ZearingIOWA181995
Big StoneMINNESOTA182012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.