BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Potholes has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+3%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
124Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.2–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 4.2–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025114.318
2026114.318
2027114.218
2028114.218
2029114.218

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA592024
Wolf PointMONTANA482024
Danzig 2NORTH-DAKOTA472024
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA412024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA382024
Douglas CrkNORTH-DAKOTA382024
CondeSOUTH-DAKOTA361984
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA342024
BuchananNORTH-DAKOTA312024
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA312022
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA312011
ChinookMONTANA292024
SacoMONTANA282024
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA282022
SpartaNEBRASKA272021
RedstoneMONTANA262024
PoncaNEBRASKA262024
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA262014
TildenNEBRASKA252024
GlasgowMONTANA222024
LambertMONTANA212024
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA212022
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA212024
WestbyMONTANA202024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA202024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.