BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 0.65–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.2 (95% range 0.65–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.723.9
20262.30.703.9
20272.30.693.8
20282.30.673.8
20292.20.653.8

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MaynardARKANSAS172024
River RoadLOUISIANA172024
SaffellARKANSAS112019
CarlisleLOUISIANA91988
ShawLOUISIANA82024
South BendARKANSAS72023
RoselandLOUISIANA72024
KelsoARKANSAS62016
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI62024
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI51994
Augusta 2ARKANSAS42016
Morgan CityLOUISIANA41978
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI42024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI42022
BlodgettMISSOURI42024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA32024
ConcordLOUISIANA32018
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA32019
CommerceMISSISSIPPI31993
DeventerMISSOURI32023
KennettMISSOURI32019
HarrisburgARKANSAS22019
WhittonARKANSAS21991
EnglandARKANSAS22024
BardwellKENTUCKY22003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.