BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-92%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 92% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±431.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±431.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.53 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±431.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.001.0
20260.000.001.0
20270.000.001.0
20280.000.001.0
20290.000.001.0

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holey LandFLORIDA82024
AndytownFLORIDA51998
FlemingtonFLORIDA51999
Sugarloaf KeyFLORIDA52003
RomeoFLORIDA42024
MabelFLORIDA42010
AlturasFLORIDA41986
Plantation KFLORIDA42003
ChildsFLORIDA32005
TamiamiFLORIDA31974
GardnerFLORIDA31995
St LucieFLORIDA31987
Lake BuffumFLORIDA32004
MicanopyFLORIDA21969
Dale MabryFLORIDA21985
St AugustineFLORIDA21986
San AntonioFLORIDA21992
KenansvilleFLORIDA22009
Ft MccoyFLORIDA22002
KissimmeeFLORIDA21999
SebastianFLORIDA21989
ShawanoFLORIDA21988
KendallFLORIDA21990
Devils GardnFLORIDA21995
Mabel 2FLORIDA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.