BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.59–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.59–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.50.794.2
20262.40.744.2
20272.40.694.1
20282.40.644.1
20292.30.594.0

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E YoungstownNEW-YORK162023
NashvilleNEW-YORK132018
PulaskiNEW-YORK112024
HinesburgVERMONT101994
DuanesburgNEW-YORK82024
SheridanNEW-YORK82024
WatertownNEW-YORK82012
SalemNEW-YORK72024
PittsfieldOHIO72024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA72024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK62024
OrleansNEW-YORK62024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK62024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK62024
West BangorNEW-YORK61999
MacdougallNEW-YORK52024
ByronNEW-YORK52023
NaplesNEW-YORK52024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK52024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK42024
HighlandNEW-YORK42022
AusterlitzNEW-YORK42024
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK42024
ClintonNEW-YORK42013
FowlerNEW-YORK41968

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.