BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-32%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.61–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.61–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 3.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.61–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.804.2
20272.50.754.2
20282.40.714.1
20292.40.664.1
20302.30.614.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E YoungstownNEW-YORK252025
NashvilleNEW-YORK132018
HinesburgVERMONT101994
DuanesburgNEW-YORK92025
SheridanNEW-YORK82025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK82025
WatertownNEW-YORK82012
CastileNEW-YORK72025
PittsfieldOHIO72024
BristolVERMONT72025
MacdougallNEW-YORK62025
TrumansburgNEW-YORK62024
OrleansNEW-YORK62024
SalemNEW-YORK62025
West BangorNEW-YORK61999
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK62025
PenfieldNEW-YORK52025
North EastonNEW-YORK52025
Valley CityOHIO52025
HighlandNEW-YORK42022
GhentNEW-YORK42025
ClintonNEW-YORK42013
FowlerNEW-YORK41968
OgdensburgNEW-YORK42025
RhinebeckNEW-YORK32025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.