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Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Ohio

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Ohio has edged up: up 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
88Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Ohio. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Ohio is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.92–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.92–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Ohio is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.92–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.912.1
20271.50.912.1
20281.50.922.1
20291.50.922.1
20301.50.922.1

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilmington919961966
Pittsfield720241992
Rome720251966
Harveysburg 2720231997
Cosmos620101966
Stonecreek620251997
Kings Creek520151993
Baxter Ridge520251998
Omega520241968
Cumberland520171966
Valley City520251995
Casstown520232001
Lockport420251966
Kunkle420251993
Bloomville420251992
Kenton420251969
Dresden420251966
West Elkton420121992
Darrtown420211966
Birmingham420241988
N Baltimore320191968
Botkins320191992
Marion320221967
Fulton320241966
Adamsville319881972

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.