BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Iowa

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Iowa has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-30%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Iowa. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Iowa is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.3–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Iowa is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.3–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.02.57.4
20264.92.57.3
20274.82.47.3
20284.82.47.2
20294.72.37.2

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zearing1819951967
Red Rock1720241968
Bryant1520241967
Exline1420241974
Alice1319991967
College Spgs 21320232005
Panther1220241967
Kanawha1120241967
Bedford1020181968
Mccallsburg1020241996
Melrose920241974
College Spgs920041967
Sioux City920241968
Mt Hamill620241967
Dinsdale620241968
Pierson620191968
Festina620241968
Burchinal620241995
Washington520241967
Wales520181967
Washta520141967
Rock Valley520191968
Tipton520241993
Brooklyn420221967
Williamsburg420231967

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.