BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Iowa

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Iowa has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-18%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Iowa. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Iowa is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 2.4–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–7.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Iowa is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 7.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.9 (95% range 2.4–7.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.12.67.6
20275.02.57.5
20285.02.57.5
20294.92.47.4
20304.92.47.4

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt Hamill1820251967
Red Rock1820251968
Panther1820251967
Zearing1819951967
Bryant1320251967
Alice1319991967
Exline1020251974
Washington1020251967
Neola1020251968
Hudson1020251967
Washta1020251967
College Spgs 21020252005
College Spgs920041967
Mccallsburg920251996
Scranton820251967
Pierson820251968
Tipton820251993
Titonka720251968
Rock Valley720251968
Burchinal720251995
Melrose620251974
Bedford620251968
Sioux City620251968
Lafayette620252003
Brooklyn520251967

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.