BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Vermont

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Vermont has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has collapsed in Vermont: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Vermont is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.00–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.004.0
20261.30.003.9
20271.20.003.8
20281.10.003.7
20291.00.003.6

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hinesburg1019941966
Waterville819801968
Gaysville620211966
W Rutland520241966
Bristol420161995
Grand Isle320241967
S Reading220231968
Post Mills220241966
Shaftsbury220241966
S Wallingfrd220221966
St Johnsbury220231970
East Haven220231966
Newbury220041986
Fletcher220241968
Marlboro120241966
North Pownal120241966
Stratton120211966
Landgrove120241966
Northfld Fls120131980
Middlesex120231968
East Calais120211966
Hardwick120241966
Greensboro120241967
Colchester120241986
Newbury 2120232014

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.