BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Illinois

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Illinois has held roughly steady: up 0% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+0%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Illinois. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Illinois is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.1–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Illinois is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 2.1–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.52.14.9
20273.52.14.9
20283.52.14.9
20293.52.14.9
20303.52.14.8

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheffield1320241966
Chandlervill1320251971
Melrose1319991973
Athensville1320251971
Belleview1220251966
Duncan Mills1220251994
Stillwell1120251971
Pontiac1020241979
Bradbury1020251970
Delwood1020251970
Cave In Rock1020241993
Sterling1020232001
Atkinson920241966
Concord920251967
Clayton920252001
Kell920252001
Geneseo820251967
Terre Haute820251966
Fairbury820251976
Mascoutah Lk820251967
Mt Vernon820251971
Eldred820251993
York820251993
Holcomb720251972
Williamsfld720251971

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.