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Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Illinois

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Illinois has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Illinois. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Illinois is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.0–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Illinois is projected to fall about 36% by 2029 — from 5.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.0–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.42.04.7
20263.42.04.7
20273.42.04.7
20283.42.04.7
20293.32.04.7

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duncan Mills1520241994
Janesville1420241972
Clayton1420242001
Sheffield1320241966
Melrose1319991973
Chandlervill1220241971
Greenview1220241993
Bluff Spgs1120241967
Camp Point1120241993
Pontiac1020241979
Sherrard1020241993
Cave In Rock1020241993
Sterling1020232001
Atkinson920241966
Concord920241967
Caledonia920241993
Williamsfld820241971
Fairbury820241976
Belleview820241966
Belknap820241970
Le Roy820241993
York820241993
Eubanks820242001
Terre Haute720241966
Mackinaw720241966

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.