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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in North Carolina has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.2–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 17% by 2030 — from 3.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.2–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.02.25.8
20274.02.25.8
20284.02.25.8
20294.02.25.8
20304.02.25.8

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shallotte2919911966
Dudley2120252002
Cypress Lakes2120252004
Mashoes1619821971
Montague1320251992
Raeford1320251990
Arapahoe1219951966
Genoa1220251990
Jamesville1120251983
South. Pines1119961995
Jordan1020251966
Green Swamp1020062002
Jarvisburg919991992
Kinston820241966
Mooresville820011966
Cokesbury820251996
Belgrade820192002
Chowan River820062002
Supply720251992
Rowland720241990
Maple Hill720231995
Roseboro720251995
Pinetops720241997
Lake Surf720251998
Bethel720252002

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.