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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in North Carolina has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
104Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.2–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in North Carolina is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 3.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.2–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.02.25.8
20264.02.25.8
20274.02.25.8
20284.02.25.8
20294.02.25.8

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shallotte2919911966
Mashoes1619821971
Genoa1620241990
Roseboro1520241995
Hamlet1520241995
Dudley1420242002
Jarvisburg 21420222000
Rose1320241968
Cypress Lakes1320242004
Arapahoe1219951966
Jamesville1220241983
South. Pines1119961995
Green Swamp1020062002
Jarvisburg919991992
Kinston820241966
Mooresville820011966
Belgrade820192002
Chowan River820062002
Rowland720241990
Maple Hill720231995
Montague720241992
Pinetops720241997
Oakboro620241969
Grandy619751971
Supply620241992

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.