BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in New York

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in New York has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in New York. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New York is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.66–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New York is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 3.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.66–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.20.863.5
20272.10.813.4
20282.10.763.4
20292.00.713.3
20302.00.663.3

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
E Youngstown2520251966
Durham1419761966
Nashville1320181967
Dryden1020251966
Orange Lake1019921987
Duanesburg920251966
Mcdonough820171967
Sheridan820251966
Churchville820251968
Watertown820121967
Castile720251967
S Berne 2720252014
S Berne620131967
Macdougall620251969
Trumansburg620241966
Orleans620241967
Centerville620151967
Salem620251967
West Bangor619991990
Philadelphia620251980
Hauppauge520181966
Rifton519861967
Mt Hope519981967
Penfield520251968
North Easton520251967

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.