BirdAnalyst
Species · South Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in South Carolina

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in South Carolina has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
51Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in South CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in South Carolina. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in South Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in South Carolina is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in South Carolina is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.40.007.7
20273.30.007.6
20283.20.007.5
20293.10.007.4
20303.00.007.3

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in South Carolina

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in South Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New Holland2420251967
Little Mtn1619881966
Wagener1420251966
Coward1120251966
Bishopville1120251970
Ward1120252017
Pinewood1120191998
New Ellenton1020252010
Salem Xrd920191982
Rome820251967
Dillon720211970
Plum Branch720251977
Prosperity720241992
Holly Hill620251972
Nixville620251998
Johns Isle519791966
Owings520041992
Landrum519881974
Sandhills520251994
Boykin Ml Pd419681966
Green Sea420252010
Kingstree420102010
Mount Pisgah420251998
Olar420191998
Walterboro320171970

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.