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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Kentucky has declined: down 28% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-28%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Kentucky. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Kentucky is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.2–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.2–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Kentucky is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.2 (95% range 3.2–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.33.37.4
20265.33.37.4
20275.33.27.3
20285.33.27.3
20295.23.27.3

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Levee 22320192007
Boxville1419831966
Iron Bridge1319981966
Merrimac1320241967
Bays Fork1320191999
Million 21320242006
Pleasurevill1220241979
East Union1120221966
Eastview920241967
Sunnybrook820221968
Kings Mtn820241966
Buena Vista820171966
Hodgenville 2820232008
Johnsonville720211966
Goshen719991966
Sewell Shop720231966
Lebanon Junction720242000
Sulphur Lick620241966
Mckee620241967
Hodgenville620031969
Cumberlnd Gp520111966
Shiloh520231967
Million519851967
Dixon420242007
Hustonville420241966

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.