BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in New Hampshire has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has collapsed in New Hampshire: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New Hampshire is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.00–2.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.002.9
20261.00.002.8
20270.920.002.7
20280.820.002.6
20290.730.002.5

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brentwood819981966
Concord820241966
Dover520241966
Marlow420241966
Canterbury320231966
Epsom220221966
Strafford220241966
Gilmantn I W220241969
Walpole220241966
Lempster220231966
Jefferson Hl220231966
Milan220241966
Clarksville220211966
East Kingston220241999
Peterborough120241966
Fitzwilliam120241966
Hopkinton120241966
Wilmot120241966
Mt Chocorua120241966
Crawford Not119721967
Franconia120231966
Stratford120221966
Dixvil Notch120131966
Glen120241975
Jeffers Ntch120181995

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.