BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in South Dakota has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-42%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in South Dakota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 2.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in South Dakota is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.2 (95% range 2.4–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.52.710
20266.42.610
20276.42.510
20286.32.510
20296.22.410

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Conde3619841967
Promise3520151971
White Lake3120111967
Isabel2720151990
Roswell2620141967
Eagle Butte2420151990
Tripp2020241967
Lodgepole1920241990
Forbes1820241967
Chamberlain1720111967
Long Lake1720191967
Geddes1620231967
Winner1620241968
Rockyford1620231967
Lane 21520142000
Howard1320241970
Raymond1320211967
Owanka1220221967
Maurine1220241968
Gettysburg1120231969
Marcus1120151999
Volga1020241967
Turton1020241985
Lane919991967
Crow Creek920231967

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.