BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in South Dakota has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in South Dakota is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 2.5–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in South Dakota is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 2.5–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.72.811
20276.62.711
20286.62.710
20296.52.610
20306.42.510

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Conde3619841967
Promise3520151971
Lodgepole3520251990
White Lake3120111967
Isabel2720151990
Roswell2620141967
Eagle Butte2420151990
Tripp2320251967
Volunteer2220251967
Cedar Pass2120251967
Winner2020251968
Rockyford2020251967
Volga2020251967
Reva2020251979
Chamberlain1720111967
Long Lake1720191967
Harding1720251968
Maurine1520251968
Lane 21520142000
Raymond1320211967
Owanka1220221967
Howard1120251970
Forbes1120251967
Gettysburg1120231969
Marcus1120151999

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.