BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Colorado

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Colorado has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-70%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Colorado: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Colorado is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±113.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Colorado is projected to rise about 21% by 2030 — from 0.28 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±113.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.360.000.86
20270.350.000.86
20280.350.000.85
20290.340.000.85
20300.340.000.84

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prospect Val1019991992
Fort Morgan720251996
Abarr620241969
Wildhorse L520251988
Julesburg520211998
Neegrande520251992
Kiowa 2520252019
Doyle Bridge419971992
Nunn320191997
Great Divide219821982
Harmony220071974
Pinneo220161975
Rockport220221998
Boyero220171979
Lay220242002
Karval220172003
Timpas220091997
Stoneham220251992
Limon220242003
Ninaview220002000
Last Chance 2220252019
Westcliffe220222022
San Luis219911991
Maybell120252007
Briggsdale120051974

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.