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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Oklahoma has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has collapsed in Oklahoma: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.45Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 68% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.45 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.003.6
20270.870.003.5
20280.730.003.4
20290.590.003.2
20300.450.003.1

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pushmataha1220231994
Welch720251967
Skiatook720191982
Collinsville620211967
Hollis620251993
Colcord620221992
Ft Sill East619941994
Grimes520251967
Chester519881967
Clear Lake520251992
Randlett419921967
Baron420231967
Choctaw420231967
Erick420241969
Goodwater420211992
Pocola420161992
Keetonville420141992
Foraker420251992
Big Cedar320241967
Barnsdall319771967
Bethel320161994
Sandbluff319951992
Wainwright320131992
Blanco220161967
Mcalester219911967

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.