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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Oklahoma has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Oklahoma: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.57Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.57 (95% range 0.00–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.003.8
20260.990.003.6
20270.850.003.5
20280.710.003.4
20290.570.003.2

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pushmataha1220231994
Skiatook720191982
Collinsville620211967
Colcord620221992
Ft Sill East619941994
Chester519881967
Randlett419921967
Baron420231967
Choctaw420231967
Erick420241969
Welch420241967
Goodwater420211992
Pocola420161992
Keetonville420141992
Big Cedar320241967
Phillips320081969
Barnsdall319771967
Bartlesville320241967
Bethel320161994
Sandbluff319951992
Matoy320001992
Hollis320231993
Wainwright320131992
Foraker320241992
Clear Lake320241992

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.