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Species · Florida · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Florida has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Florida: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Florida is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Florida is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 2.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.003.2
20271.60.003.2
20281.50.003.1
20291.50.003.1
20301.40.003.1

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale7420111987
Betts2020251987
Blountstown1820251966
Dowling Park1720251987
Telogia1219851968
Osceola820251995
Romeo720251966
Hilliard720251967
Oak Grove 2720252017
Broad Branch620251967
Miller Xrds620191987
Bristol620231986
Mossy Head520111966
Andytown519981974
Flemington519991987
Sugarloaf Key520032003
Seminole Hills 2520222002
Holey Land520251987
Mabel420101966
Alturas419861972
Plantation K420032003
Callahan420241987
New Hope420112009
Seminole Hls320001967
Belmont320241966

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.