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Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Florida

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Florida has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in Florida: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Florida is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Florida is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.003.2
20261.60.003.2
20271.50.003.1
20281.50.003.1
20291.50.003.1

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale7420111987
Blountstown1820241966
Dowling Park1820231987
Telogia1219851968
Pinetta1120241987
Hilliard820241967
Betts820241987
Holey Land820241987
Osceola720241995
Broad Branch620241967
Miller Xrds620191987
Oak Grove 2620242017
Bristol620231986
St Vincent I620241995
Mossy Head520111966
Andytown519981974
Flemington519991987
Sugarloaf Key520032003
Seminole Hills 2520222002
Miccosukee420241966
Romeo420241966
Mabel420101966
Alturas419861972
Plantation K420032003
Callahan420241987

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.