BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Delaware

All statesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Delaware has increased: up 45% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+45%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Eastern Kingbird Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Delaware. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Delaware is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.1–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Delaware is projected to rise about 72% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.1–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.05.4
20263.72.05.4
20273.72.05.5
20283.82.05.5
20293.82.15.5

Eastern Kingbird Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Holleyville 21120192006
Dover1019871966
Holleyville620041966
Wilmington520141966
Harrington420241966
Blackbird420241994
Milton320141967
Pepperbox320161998
Georgetown320221992
Mt Pleasant220191966
Frederica220141966
Lowes Xrds219911969
Bethany Bch219901966
Milton 2220172017
Pepperbox 2220242017
Frankford120121967
Millsboro120242021

Eastern Kingbird Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.