BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-2%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.8–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.8–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 19% by 2030 — from 9.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.4 (95% range 4.8–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.44.810.0
20277.44.810.0
20287.44.810.0
20297.44.810
20307.44.810

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA662025
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA602025
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA442024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA422004
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA352015
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA352025
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA342024
ForsythMONTANA302023
BrandenbergMONTANA272025
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA272015
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA262025
Cabin CreekMONTANA242025
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA242015
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA232025
Chuffey SpringMONTANA222025
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA222025
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA212025
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA202025
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA202025
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA202025
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA202025
LindsayMONTANA192024
SavageMONTANA172025
Reed PointMONTANA172025
WinifredMONTANA172023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.