BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-13%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.3 (95% range 4.7–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.7–9.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 7.3 (95% range 4.7–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.24.79.8
20267.34.79.8
20277.34.79.8
20287.34.79.8
20297.34.79.8

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA442024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA422004
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA352015
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA342024
ForsythMONTANA302023
Cabin CreekMONTANA272024
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA272024
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA272015
Chuffey SpringMONTANA252024
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA242015
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA232018
BrandenbergMONTANA202019
LindsayMONTANA192024
CrookstonNEBRASKA192024
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA192024
Glen UllinNORTH-DAKOTA182022
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA182024
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA182024
WinifredMONTANA172023
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA172011
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA162024
RockyfordSOUTH-DAKOTA162023
ArvadaWYOMING162024
FlatwillowMONTANA152008
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA152022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.