BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Eastern Kingbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.970.002.9
20260.950.002.8
20270.930.002.8
20280.920.002.8
20290.900.002.8

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrawfordNEBRASKA192024
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA162024
Prospect ValCOLORADO101999
AbarrCOLORADO62024
AgateNEBRASKA62001
JulesburgCOLORADO52021
DaltonNEBRASKA52024
Agate 2NEBRASKA52024
MarslandNEBRASKA52021
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO52021
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO41997
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA42024
ClovisNEW-MEXICO42000
NunnCOLORADO32019
Fort MorganCOLORADO32024
BenkelmanNEBRASKA32022
FloydNEW-MEXICO32019
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA32024
WakaTEXAS32017
MiamiTEXAS32009
YoderWYOMING32024
LingleWYOMING32024
PinneoCOLORADO22016
BoyeroCOLORADO22017
Wildhorse LCOLORADO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.