BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Eastern Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Eastern Kingbird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 29% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.970.002.8
20270.960.002.8
20280.940.002.8
20290.920.002.8
20300.910.002.8

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrawfordNEBRASKA112025
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA112025
Prospect ValCOLORADO101999
Agate 2NEBRASKA92025
BereaNEBRASKA82025
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA82025
Fort MorganCOLORADO72025
AbarrCOLORADO62024
DaltonNEBRASKA62025
AgateNEBRASKA62001
Wildhorse LCOLORADO52025
Kiowa 2COLORADO52025
NeegrandeCOLORADO52025
JulesburgCOLORADO52021
BenkelmanNEBRASKA52025
MarslandNEBRASKA52021
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO52021
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA52025
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO41997
ClovisNEW-MEXICO42000
YoderWYOMING42025
NunnCOLORADO32019
PlymellKANSAS32025
FloydNEW-MEXICO32019
WakaTEXAS32017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.