BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Eastern Kingbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastAerial insectivores

Eastern Kingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
163Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Eastern Kingbird has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Eastern Kingbird In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.88–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Eastern Kingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.88–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.12.7
20271.81.02.6
20281.80.992.5
20291.70.932.5
20301.70.882.4

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Eastern Kingbird in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY162000
La PlataMARYLAND142009
MadisonMARYLAND142025
WarrenCONNECTICUT132011
JonesMARYLAND131994
HongaMARYLAND132025
VillasNEW-JERSEY131981
DeepwaterNEW-JERSEY121977
Holleyville 2DELAWARE112019
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS111976
DoverDELAWARE101987
WinslowNEW-JERSEY102025
PedricktownNEW-JERSEY92012
Casimir Pulaski SfRHODE-ISLAND92018
LargoMARYLAND81981
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS81994
BrentwoodNEW-HAMPSHIRE81998
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY82013
MelitotaMARYLAND72025
CokesburyMARYLAND72025
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS71983
MaynardMASSACHUSETTS72025
Bennett Mill 2NEW-JERSEY72025
MysticCONNECTICUT62023
ShermanCONNECTICUT62019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.