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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Louisiana has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Louisiana: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Louisiana is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.001.1
20260.270.001.1
20270.260.001.1
20280.260.001.1
20290.250.001.1

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cypress419871967
Fillmore319881968
Woodlawn320212008
Derry 2320241998
Haughton220241999
Fort Jessup220191999
Linville220022002
Hackberry220161967
De Ridder220191970
Esther220211990
Evelyn220242004
De Quincy220191998
Zwolle220222003
Mount Union220151998
Ivan 2220162014
Natchitoches219911987
Burr Ferry220171989
Gran Chenier119751970
Creole119801967
Ivan120122006
Derry119881967
Fishville119711970
Fort Polk119741970
Mer Rouge119761976
Vinton 2120242014

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoillinoiskansaskentuckymississippimissourinebraskanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomatennesseetexas

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.