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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Arkansas has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+70%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has risen sharply in Arkansas: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Arkansas is projected to rise about 111% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.0–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+111%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Arkansas is projected to rise about 111% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 2.0–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.61.85.3
20273.61.95.3
20283.71.95.4
20293.72.05.4
20303.82.05.5

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell4920182010
Coal Hill1520231967
Centerton1420252010
Massard1320221967
Havana1320212010
Avoca1220241967
Russell1020212010
Stark920251975
Ashdown820231967
Saffell720191983
Maynard520251987
Ravenden Springs520152010
Augusta420011973
Rupert420241984
England420252010
Augusta 2320162002
Eudora220251975
Stamps220241967
Blakely219981984
Harrisburg220021987
Zion220251986
Yellville220252010
Hickory Ridge220222021
Sims220252011
Gillett220252011

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.