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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Arkansas has surged: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+84%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has surged in Arkansas: up 84% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Arkansas is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.2–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Arkansas is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.9 (95% range 2.2–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.05.3
20263.72.05.4
20273.82.15.4
20283.82.15.5
20293.92.25.5

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Farwell4920182010
Centerton1720242010
Coal Hill1520231967
Massard1320221967
Havana1320212010
Stark1220241975
Avoca1220241967
Russell1020212010
Ashdown820231967
Saffell720191983
Maynard720241987
Fulton720241975
Ravenden Springs520152010
England520242010
Hope420241967
Augusta420011973
Rupert420241984
Zion320241986
Yellville320222010
Ulm320241993
Augusta 2320162002
Stamps220241967
Blakely219981984
Hatfield 2220242017
Harrisburg220021987

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.