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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Texas has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
227Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Texas: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 5.9–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.9–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 12 (95% range 5.9–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025136.719
2026136.519
2027136.319
2028126.119
2029125.919

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duran7619991995
Rhome7220241967
Rachal5520231967
Goliad Prairie5420162004
Henrietta4920221968
Loyola Beach4820091994
Three Rivers4820241994
Loyola Beach 24720242010
Weinert4519941969
Hondo4420241969
Chandler4420041968
Girard4320231994
Megargel4220241994
Millett 24120242013
Agua Nueva4020231969
Dilley4020242018
Manor3920242012
Hobson3420241968
George West3420241967
Olney3420241969
Walburg3320241980
Encinal 23320242011
Gainesville3220241967
Thornton 33220242018
Charlie3220241994

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamississippimissourinebraskanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomatennessee

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.