BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Texas has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
229Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Texas: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 10.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.4–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.4–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Texas is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 10.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 5.4–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026136.319
2027126.119
2028125.919
2029125.618
2030125.418

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 28220252010
Duran7619991995
Hobson5620251968
Hondo5620251969
Goliad Prairie5420162004
Girard5320251994
Henrietta4920221968
Loyola Beach4820091994
Weinert4519941969
Chandler4420041968
Millett 24120242013
Agua Nueva4020231969
Manor3920242012
Weatherford3720251968
Brite3720251994
Megargel3620251994
Rhome3420251967
Olney3420241969
Dilley3420252018
George West3120251967
Three Rivers3120251994
Massey Lake3020251970
Encinal 23020252011
Whit Mtn.3020191994
Oak Grove2919991967

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascoloradoillinoiskansaskentuckylouisianamississippimissourinebraskanew-mexiconorth-carolinaoklahomatennessee

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.