BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher

TyrannidaeAerial insectivoresTyrannus forficatus

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
518RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Scissor-tailed Flycatcher

The Scissor-tailed Flycatcher (Tyrannus forficatus) is a North American member of the Tyrant Flycatchers (Tyrannidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the aerial insectivores.

Size
4.5–9 in long (12–23 cm) — a small to medium flycatcher (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open airspace over fields, water and towns; nests in cavities, earthen banks or on structures.
Diet
Flying insects caught on the wing.
Range
Recorded on 518 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 15 states, most concentrated in the Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Family
Tyrannidae · Aerial insectivores

Notable Scissor-tailed Flycatcher TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.46–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.46–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.000.521.5
20260.980.501.5
20270.970.491.4
20280.950.471.4
20290.940.461.4

Where the Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Is Detected

BBS routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher, sized by most recent count.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend by State

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabamainsufficient datan/a1
Arkansas+84%196952
Coloradoinsufficient datan/a1
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a1
Kansas-11%196959
Kentuckyinsufficient datan/a1
Louisiana-66%196938
Mississippiinsufficient datan/a3
Missouri+273%197246
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a3
New Mexico+197%198016
North Carolinainsufficient datan/a1
Oklahoma-37%196968
Tennesseeinsufficient datan/a1
Texas-55%1969227

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Shortgrass Prairie+24%196953
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-13%196988
Edwards Plateau-62%196920
Oaks and Prairies-50%196974
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-47%196944
Central Hardwoods+563%197048
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-51%196984
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+484%197320
Chihuahuan Desert-20%196920
Tamaulipan Brushlands-16%196928
Gulf Coastal Prairie-64%196934

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 50% since 1969. Aerial insectivores have fallen sharply across the continent, a decline widely linked to dwindling insect prey.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.