BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-64%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.20.0013
20266.10.0013
20275.90.0013
20285.80.0013
20295.60.0012

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Goliad PrairieTEXAS542016
Loyola BeachTEXAS482009
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS472024
BaysideTEXAS152010
McfaddinTEXAS152016
IndianolaTEXAS142024
VanderbiltTEXAS131976
KatyTEXAS132024
Rock IslandTEXAS132024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS102024
Hinkles FerTEXAS92024
Port AcresTEXAS82024
Bayside 2TEXAS82004
ChinquapinTEXAS72024
PetronilaTEXAS62024
WinnieTEXAS52024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS52023
San PedroTEXAS42023
Bayside 3TEXAS42024
WoodlawnLOUISIANA32021
Moon LakeTEXAS32011
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
EstherLOUISIANA22021
DanburyTEXAS22023
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA11975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.