BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-61%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 6.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.5 (95% range 0.00–12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.10.0013
20276.00.0013
20285.80.0013
20295.70.0012
20305.50.0012

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS822025
Goliad PrairieTEXAS542016
Loyola BeachTEXAS482009
BaysideTEXAS152010
McfaddinTEXAS152016
IndianolaTEXAS142024
VanderbiltTEXAS131976
Lag AtascosaTEXAS122025
KatyTEXAS82025
Rock IslandTEXAS82025
Bayside 2TEXAS82004
San PedroTEXAS72025
PetronilaTEXAS42025
WinnieTEXAS42025
Bayside 3TEXAS42025
WoodlawnLOUISIANA32021
Hinkles FerTEXAS32025
ChinquapinTEXAS32025
Moon LakeTEXAS32011
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS32025
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
EstherLOUISIANA22021
DanburyTEXAS22023
Port AcresTEXAS22025
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA11975

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.