BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
21Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 0.56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.33–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+108%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.33–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 108% by 2030 — from 0.56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.33–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.312.0
20271.10.312.0
20281.10.322.0
20291.10.322.0
20301.20.332.0

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AltudaTEXAS112023
Ozona 2TEXAS72025
LongfellowTEXAS62025
OzonaTEXAS52022
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO42024
ComstockTEXAS42025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS32017
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22023
PumpvilleTEXAS22024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12017
ValentineTEXAS11982
Delaware CrkTEXAS11972
GirvinTEXAS12025
Bear MtnTEXAS12014
LangtryTEXAS12000
Devils R CynTEXAS12024
Ft. StocktonTEXAS12025
ToyahvaleTEXAS12017
MarathonTEXAS12025
MarfaTEXAS12018
Ft. DavisTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.