BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-20%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Scissor-tailed Flycatcher In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.37–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+103%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.37–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.37–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.342.0
20261.20.352.0
20271.20.352.0
20281.20.362.0
20291.20.372.0

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Scissor-tailed Flycatcher in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MarathonTEXAS122023
AltudaTEXAS112023
GirvinTEXAS62024
LongfellowTEXAS52024
OzonaTEXAS52022
Ft. StocktonTEXAS32024
Coyanda DrawTEXAS32017
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22023
ComstockTEXAS22021
PumpvilleTEXAS22024
LakewoodNEW-MEXICO12017
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12023
ValentineTEXAS11982
Delaware CrkTEXAS11972
Bear MtnTEXAS12014
LangtryTEXAS12000
Devils R CynTEXAS12024
ToyahvaleTEXAS12017
MarfaTEXAS12018
Ft. DavisTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.